Aster

Trade Context

• The Binance ecosystem was on fire during the time of the Aster launch
• CZ, the Binance founder, invested in Aster via his fund YZI Labs
• CZ had a previous feud with Hyperliquid (direct competitor of Aster)
• Hyperliquid was hovering around all-time highs

Thesis

It's rare to find this level of bullish alignment on a trade. Hyperliquid was the hottest project in crypto, BNB just had a spike in on-chain volume, and one of the biggest figures in crypto, CZ, was looking for a piece of the pie. The main reason for buying was the chance that CZ would heavily push Aster as a product. Although likely fabricated, the volume numbers created an additional layer to drive the trade by providing a fundamental comparison to Hyperliquid.

The Trade

First buys came between $0.37 and $0.42. Entry began when CZ posted the Aster chart on X, signaling his willingness to be involved with the project. First sells came around $0.70, with the rest being sold between $1.50 and $2.00.

Reflection

I discovered Aster on launch day right at open, first seeing it at $0.15. By the time I completed my research, the price had doubled. Instead of being discouraged by this, I pounced once the narrative was fully developed. My first sells in the $0.70 range were largely for risk management as I had sized into it with a large portion of my risk-on portfolio. Later attempts to swing-trade on lower conviction after peak momentum of the move proved to be -EV. Aside from the swings, exiting the majority of the position above $1.50, as the narrative wound down, proved to be correct.